The new modelling provides an indication of the likely levels of business drawing on the current assessment of  future case levels. It sets out what the estimated trial levels and waiting periods will be against a range of different court capacity levels – providing an indication of the level of court provision that will be necessary to maintain an effective system.

The latest monthly workbook which provides statistics on the throughput of criminal cases in our courts is also published today. It shows the number of scheduled criminal trials in Scotland has reduced by more than 20,000 from a peak of 43,606 in January 2022 to 23,361 as at the end of September 2024 – significantly reducing the waiting time in which victims, witnesses and accused await their trial. 

The aim is to return to a position where the number of scheduled trials across all criminal business types is below 20,000. 

While this positive picture demonstrates the success of the criminal court recovery programme in tackling excessive backlogs, the modelling also makes clear that the level of business entering Scotland’s criminal courts has changed quite significantly since before the pandemic.  In particular there has been a sustained increase in solemn business levels which were 28% higher in 2023-24 compared to 2021-22.